Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 12, 2024
Champ Week is here and six automatic bids have already been handed out. The only impact on the at-large pool came in the Missouri Valley, where Drake knocked off Indiana State to cap off Arch Madness. In reality, the Bulldogs probably had a better at-large resume than the Sycamores, but while ISU has a long week of waiting ahead, there’s still a chance that they go dancing. More on the Sycamores later.
Here are a few random thoughts at the start of a busy week:
• With things relatively slow early in the week, it provides bracketologists an excellent opportunity to review certain sections of the seed list where things are less clear. The six and seven lines, in particular, are tricky to sort out at this stage.
As for the bubble, far more teams hurt themselves than helped themselves over the weekend, leaving a few spots up for grabs heading into the major conference tournaments.
• And at the top of the bracket, North Carolina’s win at Duke and Arizona’s loss at USC added some clarity to the race for the final one seed, which is pretty much down to Tennessee and UNC.
The plan is to post daily updates for the projections during the week as we head toward Selection Sunday.
Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 1A: Home vs. teams ranked 1-15 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-25 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-40
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections below are based on all games played through March 11, 2024. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and first four teams out.
| DETROIT (MIDWEST) | DALLAS (SOUTH) | |
| Indianapolis – March 22/24 | Memphis – March 22/24 | |
| 1) Purdue | 1) Houston | |
| 16) Grambling / Norfolk St. | 16) Longwood | |
| 8) Boise State |
8) Florida | |
| 9) Florida Atlantic | 9) Nebraska | |
| Pittsburgh – March 21/23 | Spokane – March 22/24 | |
| 5) Clemson |
5) Utah State | |
| 12) James Madison | 12) Richmond |
|
| 4) Kentucky | 4) Alabama | |
| 13) McNeese State | 13) Vermont | |
| Pittsburgh – March 21/23 | Brooklyn – March 22/24 | |
| 6) Wisconsin | 6) Dayton | |
| 11) Drake | 11) Indiana St. / Texas A&M | |
| 3) Creighton | 3) Duke | |
| 14) Charleston | 14) Morehead State | |
| Memphis – March 22/24 | Indianapolis – March 22/24 | |
| 7) Gonzaga | 7) Washington State | |
| 10) Mississippi State | 10) TCU | |
| 2) Baylor | 2) Marquette | |
| 15) Sam Houston |
15) South Dakota State | |
| LOS ANGELES (WEST) | BOSTON (EAST) | |
| Charlotte – March 21/23 | Brooklyn – March 22/24 | |
| 1) Tennessee | 1) Connecticut | |
| 16) Merrimack / Stetson | 16) Quinnipiac | |
| 8) Texas | 8) Northwestern | |
| 9) Colorado State | 9) Oklahoma | |
| Spokane – March 22/24 | Salt Lake City – March 21/23 | |
| 5) South Carolina | 5) BYU | |
| 12) South Florida | 12) Grand Canyon | |
| 4) Illinois | 4) Auburn | |
| 13) UC Irvine | 13) Samford | |
| Omaha – March 21/23 | Omaha – March 21/23 | |
| 6) San Diego State | 6) Nevada | |
| 11) Princeton |
11) St. John’s / Virginia | |
| 3) Kansas | 3) Iowa State | |
| 14) Oakland | 14) Toledo | |
| Salt Lake City – March 21/23 | Charlotte – March 21/23 | |
| 7) Texas Tech | 7) Saint Mary’s | |
| 10) Seton Hall | 10) Michigan State | |
| 2) Arizona | 2) North Carolina | |
| 15) Montana | 15) Colgate |
Last Four In:
• Virginia: The Cavaliers closed the season with a 15-point win over Georgia Tech on Saturday. UVA sits at 8-9 in the top two quadrants with two Q1 wins (at Clemson and Florida on a neutral court) and no other losses. However, all nine losses have come by double digits, damaging their predictive metrics in the process. A probable quarterfinal matchup with Clemson in the ACC Tournament would provide the opportunity for a much-needed quality win.
• St. John’s: After avoiding disaster in games against DePaul and Georgetown, the Red Storm remain firmly in the bubble mix. They now have three Q1 wins and nine victories in the top two quadrants, including a sweep of Villanova and a neutral-court win over fellow bubbler Utah. However, just one of their victories came against an at-large team in today’s field (Creighton). Thursday’s date with Seton Hall is shaping up to be an important one for both squads.
• Indiana State: As mentioned above, it will be a long week of waiting for the Sycamores. All four team sheet metrics are hovering around 40th and ISU is 29th in the NET. That said, their lone Q1 victory came at Bradley, and their other two Top 100 victories were at home against Drake and Bradley. ISU has just two losses outside of the top quadrant, but one is a brutal Q4 loss to Illinois State. It feels like we’ve seen the committee give some top mid-majors the benefit of the doubt in recent years, and I plan to dig in more this week to find out whether those comparisons reflect favorably on Indiana State.
• Texas A&M: The Aggies have assembled an odd profile. On the one hand, they have five Q1 victories and are 11-9 against the top two quadrants, with wins over Tennessee and Kentucky at home and Iowa State on a neutral floor. A top 25 non-conference strength of schedule may help A&M as well, but they’ve also managed to go just 2-4 in Q3, contributing to their 13 total losses. The Aggies won at Ole Miss to close out the regular season and will take on the Rebels again in their first SEC Tournament contest.
First Four Out:
• Colorado: The Buffs swept the road trip to the Oregon schools, which helped to bolster their road record. Their two Q1 wins came at Washington and Oregon, while they have just one victory over an at-large team in this week’s field (Washington State). Colorado’s team sheet metrics tend to compare favorably to other bubble teams, and even though the Buffs don’t have any losses outside of the top two quadrants, they do have four losses to teams ranked 95th or worse in the NET that sit on the low end of Q2. CU will face either Utah or Arizona State on Thursday.
• New Mexico: After dropping a close game at Utah State, the Lobos are on the outside looking in. They have six wins in the top two quadrants, with a home win over UC Irvine, which is the only one not to come in MWC play. New Mexico has also been swept by UNLV and is saddled with a Q4 home loss to Air Force. A poor non-conference strength of schedule is also a potential issue and even though they are 9-6 in road/neutral games, eight of those victories fall in Q3 or Q4. The Lobos have a chance for revenge against Air Force, setting up a date with Boise State in the quarterfinals.
• Villanova: The Wildcats closed the season with a pair of losses, dropping their overall record to 17-14. They have nine wins in the top two quadrants, including marquee wins over North Carolina and Texas Tech on neutral floors and on the road at Creighton. But three Q3 losses have left Villanova at 12-14 in non-Q4 contests. Wednesday’s game against DePaul provides a chance to pad the win total, but more importantly, it would set up a date with Marquette in a game that could move the needle.
• Iowa: There’s a bit of a drop-off between the first three teams out and the Hawkeyes. They could not knock off Illinois in the season finale, leaving them at 3-8 in Q1, with seven of those losses falling in Q1A. Iowa does have five Q2 victories and has beaten Michigan State and Northwestern on the road. A Q3 loss to Michigan certainly doesn’t help, so Iowa will need to beat Ohio State on Thursday so the Hawkeyes can get another crack at Illinois.
The other teams considered for the first four out were Pittsburgh and Providence.
Conference Breakdown:
Big 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
SEC (8): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, Seton Hall
Mountain West (5): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, San Diego State, Utah State
ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia
American (2): Florida Atlantic, South Florida
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Richmond
Missouri Valley: Drake*, Indiana State
Pac-12 (2): Arizona, Washington State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Stetson*
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Longwood*
Big West: UC Irvine
Coastal: Charleston
Conference USA: Sam Houston
Horizon: Oakland
Ivy: Princeton
MAAC: Quinnipiac
MAC: Toledo
MEAC: Norfolk State
Northeast: Merrimack
Ohio Valley: Morehead State*
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Samford*
Southland: McNeese State
SWAC: Grambling
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: James Madison*
WAC: Grand Canyon
* – Automatic Bid
Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2023-2024 Bracketology