Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 17, 2024
It has been an absolutely wild couple of days, as multiple bid stealers have created a strong yet crowded bubble. A few sections of the seed list are due for a final scrub today, but the tweaks from here should be minor. The A-10 and AAC Championship games could also trigger some movement at the lower end of the bracket.
Final projections will be posted later this afternoon before the selection show.
Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 1A: Home vs. teams ranked 1-15 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-25 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-40
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351
The Bracket
The projections below are based on all games played through March 16, 2024 as well as the Ivy League Championship Game. Following the bracket, I included my last four in and first four teams out.
BOSTON (EAST) | DETROIT (MIDWEST) | |
Brooklyn – March 22/24 | Indianapolis – March 22/24 | |
1) Connecticut | 1) Purdue | |
16) Howard / Wagner | 16) Stetson | |
8) Boise State |
8) Dayton | |
9) TCU | 9) Colorado State | |
Pittsburgh – March 21/23 | Brooklyn – March 22/24 | |
5) BYU |
5) Texas Tech | |
12) McNeese State | 12) Samford |
|
4) Duke | 4) Kentucky | |
13) Yale | 13) Vermont | |
Omaha – March 21/23 | Salt Lake City – March 21/23 | |
6) Florida | 6) Saint Mary’s | |
11) James Madison | 11) Oregon | |
3) Kansas | 3) Creighton | |
14) Oakland | 14) Colgate | |
Charlotte – March 21/23 | Omaha – March 21/23 | |
7) Clemson | 7) Nevada | |
10) Colorado / Oklahoma | 10) Florida Atlantic | |
2) Tennessee | 2) Iowa State | |
15) Long Beach State |
15) South Dakota State | |
LOS ANGELES (WEST) | DALLAS (SOUTH) | |
Charlotte – March 21/23 | Memphis – March 22/24 | |
1) North Carolina | 1) Houston | |
16) Grambling / Montana St. | 16) Saint Peter’s | |
8) Texas | 8) Nebraska | |
9) Northwestern | 9) New Mexico | |
Spokane – March 22/24 | Spokane – March 22/24 | |
5) San Diego State | 5) Wisconsin | |
12) VCU | 12) Grand Canyon | |
4) Alabama | 4) Auburn | |
13) Charleston | 13) UAB | |
Memphis – March 22/24 | Pittsburgh – March 21/23 | |
6) Utah State | 6) South Carolina | |
11) Drake |
11) North Carolina State | |
3) Baylor | 3) Illinois | |
14) Morehead State | 14) Akron | |
Salt Lake City – March 21/23 | Indianapolis – March 22/24 | |
7) Gonzaga | 7) Washington State | |
10) Mississippi State | 10) Michigan State / Texas A&M | |
2) Arizona | 2) Marquette | |
15) Western Kentucky | 15) Longwood |
Last Four In:
Michigan State
Texas A&M
Colorado
Oklahoma
First Four Out:
Indiana State
Seton Hall
St. John’s
Virginia
Conference Breakdown:
Big 12 (9): Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State*, Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
SEC (8): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Mountain West (6): Boise State, Colorado St., Nevada, New Mexico*, San Diego State, Utah State
ACC (4): Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State*
Pac-12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, Oregon*, Washington State
Big East (3): Connecticut*, Creighton, Marquette
American (2): Florida Atlantic, UAB
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, VCU
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s*
America East: Vermont*
Atlantic Sun: Stetson*
Big Sky: Montana State*
Big South: Longwood*
Big West: Long Beach State*
Coastal: Charleston*
Conference USA: Western Kentucky*
Horizon: Oakland*
Ivy: Yale*
MAAC: Saint Peter’s*
MAC: Akron*
MEAC: Howard*
Missouri Valley: Drake*
Northeast: Wagner*
Ohio Valley: Morehead State*
Patriot: Colgate*
Southern: Samford*
Southland: McNeese State*
SWAC: Grambling*
Summit: South Dakota State*
Sun Belt: James Madison*
WAC: Grand Canyon*
* – Automatic Bid
Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.
Filed to: 2023-2024 Bracketology