What to Expect: Indiana vs. Penn State

  • 03/14/2024 6:27 am in

Indiana and Penn State will meet for a third time this season on Thursday night in Minneapolis at the Big Ten tournament. The Nittany Lions swept the regular season series, beating the Hoosiers 85-71 in Bloomington and 83-74 in University Park. Penn State is 16-16 overall.

Thursday’s game will tip at approximately 9 p.m. ET on BTN:

Indiana will look to continue its late-season momentum when it carries a four-game winning streak into the Big Ten tournament.

The Hoosiers earned the No. 6 seed in Minneapolis and will take on Penn State, which beat Michigan 66-57 on Wednesday night in the first round.

THE REGULAR SEASON MEETINGS

Offense was no issue for Penn State in both matchups against Indiana in the regular season. The Nittany Lions faced little resistance from the Hoosiers, scoring an average of 84 points over a pair of matchups.

Penn State went 12-for-22 on 3s at Assembly Hall and 9-for-21 from distance at the Bryce Jordan Center. In two games, Penn State outscored Indiana by 42 points on 3-pointers.

Ace Baldwin was a significant problem for Indiana’s guards in both matchups. The VCU transfer, named the Big Ten defensive player of the year earlier in the week, wreaked havoc on the Hoosier backcourt on both ends of the floor.

Baldwin scored 22 points and eight assists in Bloomington and followed that performance with 23 points and nine assists in University Park. And that was with Trey Galloway available to play for Indiana. Galloway left IU’s last game against Michigan State with a knee injury.

Another Nittany Lion who proved to be a difficult matchup for Indiana in the regular season is forward Zach Hicks.

The Temple transfer dropped 19 points, hit 4-for-8 on 3s in Bloomington and backed that up with 17 points against the Hoosiers in University Park. Hicks also shot 4-for-8 on 3s in that game. In Wednesday’s game against Michigan, Hicks scored 20 points and made six 3-pointers. The 6-foot-8 forward is a difficult matchup for Malik Reneau because of his perimeter-centric game offensively.

In the most recent matchup between the teams, Indiana found success offensively with Reneau, who scored 27 points in 35 minutes at the Bryce Jordan Center.

Despite battling foul trouble – Reneau finished the game with four fouls – he shot 9-for-14 from the field and 9-for-12 from the line.

Kel’el Ware was dominant in the first meeting between the teams, scoring 25 points and grabbing 11 rebounds in IU’s 14-point loss at Assembly Hall.

But as well as IU’s frontcourt played at times in the first two meetings, it didn’t matter because the backcourt was thoroughly outclassed by the Nittany Lions.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

All stats in the graphic below are via KenPom.com, are updated through Wednesday’s games and are for conference games only.

As the fastest-tempo team in the Big Ten, Penn State will push the pace and try to get Indiana into an up-and-down game at the Target Center.

The first matchup was played at a slower pace – only 62 possessions – but it didn’t matter because the Nittany Lions posted a season-best 68.5 effective field goal percentage and had a turnover percentage of just 9.7. The rematch was 70 possessions, a pace more in line with Penn State’s average of 70.2 possessions in conference play.

Penn State will be looking to prey on IU’s sloppiness with the ball at times by forcing turnovers. The Nittany Lions rank second in the league in opponent turnover percentage at 19.1.

Penn State isn’t a strong rebounding team on either end – the Nittany Lions are 12th in offensive rebounding percentage and 13th in defensive rebounding percentage – so Indiana will have to make the most of that deficiency.

Ultimately, how well Indiana contests shots on the perimeter looms large for its chances to advance. Penn State is shooting 34.9 percent on 3s against Big Ten opponents, but shot 48.8 percent in the regular season against the Hoosiers.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Penn State by one with a 47 percent chance of an IU victory.

The availability of Galloway, who has been given no official update by the program prior to tonight’s game, looms large for the Hoosiers. Indiana led Michigan State 20-5 on Sunday with Galloway in the game and then lost its lead and momentum when he went to the bench with a knee injury before securing a one-point win. Given his importance on both ends and IU’s limited guard depth, the Hoosiers face an uphill climb if he’s unavailable to play.

Xavier Johnson didn’t play in either regular season matchup and will be pivotal for the Hoosiers in matching up with Baldwin, who dominated both games. Indiana needs the best version of Johnson to stay above water against Baldwin.

Indiana has a clear advantage in the post with Ware and Reneau, but will need to take care of the ball and defend the perimeter well enough for it to matter.

Filed to: