What to Expect: Ohio State at Indiana
Indiana will look to rebound from an 86-70 blowout loss at Nebraska when it hosts Ohio State on Saturday night. The Buckeyes are 12-2 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play.
Saturday’s game will tip at 8 p.m. ET on FOX:
Indiana’s second road game of the season was a nightmare as the Hoosiers turned it over 19 times and were beaten soundly by Nebraska on Wednesday night at Pinnacle Bank Arena.
The Hoosiers now return home for a matchup with Ohio State, which is currently the fifth-best team in the Big Ten according to KenPom. After a disappointing 2022-23 season, which saw the Buckeyes finish 16-19, Chris Holtmann has righted the ship in Columbus through 14 games.
If Indiana is going to stay in the mix in the Big Ten race, the Hoosiers have to win their home games. While they’ll likely be an underdog on Saturday, this is an opportunity to put Wednesday’s debacle in the rearview mirror quickly.
MEET THE BUCKEYES
Ohio State regularly goes eight deep, with just one freshman in the regular rotation in conference games.
Sophomore point guard Bruce Thornton leads Ohio State in scoring, assists, free throw attempts, steals and minutes played. The Georgia native averages a team-high 17.4 points on 45.1 shooting from the field. Thornton is second on the team in made 3-pointers (28) and shoots 82.9 percent from the free-throw line.
Fellow sophomore Roddy Gayle Jr. emerged late last season for the Buckeyes and has carried his strong play into his second season. Gayle Jr. averages 14.9 points and is a solid athlete who can finish at the rim or knock down perimeter shots. Gayle Jr. is hitting 39.5 percent of his 3s (43 attempts) but can be turnover-prone. Gayle Jr. is second on Ohio State in assists with 47 but has committed 40 turnovers.
Penn State transfer Evan Mahaffey, an Ohio native, starts at the three, with Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle at the four.
Mahaffey, a 6-foot-6 sophomore, isn’t much of an offensive threat but has length, plays with a ton of energy, and can defend.
Battle, a fifth-year wing with no shortage of Big Ten experience, is healthy after battling injuries last season in Minneapolis. Battle is connecting on three 3-pointers per game and is shooting 44.7 percent. He’s tied with Gayle Jr. for second in scoring on the roster with 14.9 points per game.
Sophomore Felix Okpara starts at the five, with senior Zed Key as the backup. Okpara is 6-foot-11 and gives Ohio State a legitimate post defender. He’s already erased 29 shots in 13 games. The Lagos, Nigeria native also leads the Buckeyes in rebounding at 6.5 per game.
Key is fourth on the team in scoring at 9.1 points per game and second in rebounding at 5.6 per game despite playing just 19.1 minutes. Key is shooting 61.1 percent on 2s and excels despite standing 6-foot-8 as a post player.
Baylor transfer Dale Bonner plays backup minutes at both guard positions. In 14 games, Bonner has knocked down 14 triples and averages six points in 21.4 minutes.
Freshman Scotty Middleton is a 6-foot-7 wing with a ton of promise. He’s shooting 41.1 percent on 3s and averages 4.6 points in 17.2 minutes off the bench.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
All stats are through Thursday’s game and via KenPom.com.
Ohio State has several strengths that should have Indiana concerned entering Saturday’s game.
The Buckeyes aren’t a high-volume 3-point shooting team but are connecting at a 37.9 percent clip and making 8.5 triples per game. It won’t be surprising to see Ohio State take more 3s than usual at Assembly Hall, as those looks will likely be available.
Ohio State is also an elite offensive-rebounding team. The Buckeyes are grabbing 35.8 percent of their missed shots. Indiana has improved on the defensive glass, but limiting second-chance opportunities will be pivotal.
The Buckeyes also defend relatively well without fouling, as their opponents have a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of just 28.2 percent, the 81st best in the country. It’ll be essential for Indiana to get good looks in the paint and finish or get to the line to keep up with Ohio State’s high-scoring offense (79.1 points per game).
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Ohio State by three with a 37 percent chance of an Indiana victory. The Hoosiers have fallen to No. 93 in Pomeroy’s latest rankings after starting the season at No. 49.
After Mike Woodson called the play of Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway “awful” on Wednesday at Nebraska, the Hoosiers need more from both guys on Saturday and moving forward. Thornton can control the game from the point guard position and Johnson needs to be disruptive. Galloway also needs to put pressure on Gayle Jr. and force him into tough shots or turnovers by applying pressure. Ohio State is a guard-driven team, and Indiana’s guards must be far more competitive than they were in the last game.
The Hoosiers also have to do a much better job of taking care of the ball after 19 turnovers in Lincoln turned into 27 Nebraska points. While it was an uncharacteristic performance, Woodson needs it to be a one-off occurrence rather than a problem moving forward.
Indiana will have an advantage in the post with Ware and Reneau and what should be an excellent crowd on a Saturday night at Assembly Hall. The Buckeyes have already dropped a Big Ten road game by three at Penn State. If Indiana can put together a solid 40 minutes, this is a winnable game for the Hoosiers.
Filed to: Ohio State Buckeyes