What to Expect: Minnesota at Indiana
Indiana returns to action Friday night when it hosts Minnesota at Assembly Hall. The Golden Gophers are 12-3, are 3-1 in Big Ten play and have won seven straight games.
Friday’s game tips at 6:30 p.m. ET on FS1:
Indiana collapsed Tuesday in a winnable road game at Rutgers but has an opportunity to get back in the win column heading into the weekend.
The Hoosiers host Minnesota Friday night ahead of a brutal three-game stretch with games against Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois.
The Gophers have a solid 12-3 record built primarily against the worst non-conference schedule in the country. According to KenPom, Minnesota played the easiest non-conference schedule, ranking 362nd out of 362 teams.
MEET THE GOPHERS
Ben Johnson knew he was coaching for his job entering the season and scheduled accordingly. Minnesota played nine home games against teams ranked 230th or worse in KenPom, winning them all.
But the Gophers are off to a strong start in league play with home wins against Nebraska and Maryland and a road win at Michigan last week.
Minnesota’s backcourt was built in the transfer portal as Johnson landed two up-transfers in Elijah Hawkins (Howard) and Mike Mitchell Jr. (Pepperdine).
The 5-foot-11 Hawkins has started all 15 games and is an elite distributor. He’s racked up 117 assists in 15 games (7.8 per game) and ranks eighth in the country in assist rate. Hawkins loves to play out of the pick-and-roll and is a true pass-first point guard. He’s sixth on the team in scoring at 8.8 points per game on 39.2 percent shooting from the field and 38.8 percent shooting on 3s. In four Big Ten games, Hawkins is 10-for-17 (58.8 percent) on 3s.
Mitchell, a 6-foot-2 guard, is the team’s second-leading scorer (11.1 ppg) and has started the last five games. He’s a 41 percent 3-point shooter and is an excellent catch-and-shoot threat. Mitchell is making over two triples per game.
Sophomore Braeden Carrington started the team’s first 10 games before taking a three-game break to address mental health issues. Carrington, who is 6-foot-4, is coming off the bench since his return two games ago. He logged 30 minutes in a win against Maryland on Jan. 7 and is primarily a perimeter shooter.
Freshman Cam Christie, the younger brother of former Michigan State guard Max Christie, starts at the three and gives the Gophers a solid wing scorer and shooter with size. The 6-foot-6 guard shoots 39.7 percent on 3s and can hit off the dribble or catch-and-shoot situations.
Sophomore Joshua Ola-Joseph starts at the four, with Dawson Garcia at the five. Ola-Joseph is a 6-foot-7 forward who has reached double figures in seven straight games. In Big Ten games, he’s averaging 11 points on 59.4 percent shooting from the field. For the season, he’s 12-for-24 on 3s.
A 6-foot-11 junior, Garcia is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder. Garcia is averaging 16.7 points, but he’s been inefficient. He’s shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 24.2 percent on 3s. He is an excellent free throw shooter at 84.5 percent and it’s likely only a matter of time before he starts making 3s.
Pharrel Payne, a 6-foot-9 sophomore, is an impact scorer and rebounder off the bench. Payne averages 9.7 points and 5.4 rebounds in just 20.1 minutes per game. He’s a dismal 16-for-45 from the free-throw line, so it’s best to take a foul if he’s got a clear path to a bucket.
Another name to know is Isaiah Ihnen, who is finally healthy after injuries forced him to sit out the last two seasons. Ihnen is a 3-point shooting specialist with size. The 6-foot-9 junior is 17-for-45 on 3s and plays nearly 17 minutes per game.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
All stats are via KenPom.com and updated through Wednesday’s games.
Nearly 70 percent of Minnesota’s field goals are assisted, which ranks second in the nation. The Gophers, however, have struggled with turnovers, ranking just 198th in the country in turnover percentage.
Minnesota is a much better rebounding team than Indiana, ranking 46th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 143 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Hoosiers have been dreadful on the defensive glass this season despite being one of the tallest teams in the country.
Defensively, Minnesota focuses on taking away the 3. The Gophers are only allowing 5.7 made 3-pointers per game and are outscoring their opponents by an average of eight points from distance. Minnesota does rank 33rd in the country in 2-point field goal percentage defense, but the soft non-conference schedule also helps that number.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Indiana by two with a 57 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Through 16 games, Indiana is the second lowest-ranked Big Ten team in KenPom and is only favored to win two more games in Pomeroy’s projections.
The Hoosiers are an extreme long shot to reach the NCAA tournament from an at-large perspective but this is a game they need to win to stay afloat for a respectable conference finish given the upcoming schedule.
Indiana has been a solid team at Assembly Hall with an 8-1 record in the building but will need much better guard play, rebounding and ball handling to emerge with a win against an improved Minnesota team.
(Photo credit: Minnesota Athletics)
Filed to: Minnesota Golden Gophers