What to Expect: Indiana at Maryland

  • 03/01/2024 8:43 am in

Indiana hits the road for a Sunday afternoon matchup against Maryland at the Xfinity Center. The Terrapins are 15-14 overall and 7-11 in the Big Ten.

Sunday’s game will tip at 2 p.m. ET on CBS:

Indiana snapped its four-game losing streak with a 74-70 win against Wisconsin on Tuesday at Assembly Hall behind outstanding performances from Kel’el Ware and Trey Galloway. Ware scored 27 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and blocked five shots against the Badgers. Galloway produced his second 12-assist game this season.

Now the Hoosiers have their sights set on a season sweep of Maryland, one of the Big Ten’s most disappointing teams this season. Picked to finish third in the conference in the preseason, the Terps have lost three of four and are just one game above .500 on the season.

THE FIRST MATCHUP

The first meeting between Indiana and Maryland, which came back on Dec. 1, was Indiana’s best defensive effort of the season.

Indiana raced to a 16-4 lead out of the gate and led wire-to-wire in the Big Ten opener for both teams.

The Hoosiers held the Terrapins to 53 points (.799 points per possession) and won comfortably despite committing 16 turnovers. Maryland shot just 18-for-40 (45 percent) on 2s and 2-for-16 (12.5 percent) on 3s.

Without Xavier Johnson in the lineup, Indiana made life difficult for Jahmir Young, who needed 14 field goal attempts and eight trips to the free throw line to reach 20 points. Julian Reese was the only other Maryland player in double figures. The 6-foot-9 lefty finished with 14 points and eight rebounds, but was thoroughly outplayed by Ware.

While Indiana’s offense also struggled to score – the Hoosiers finished with only 65 points and .98 points per possession – it was a balanced effort.

Ware was an efficient 8-for-12 from the field and had a team-high 18 points along with 14 rebounds in 33 minutes. Galloway had one of his best games of the season, too, with 12 points, six rebounds and six assists in 34 minutes.

The contributions didn’t stop there. Freshman Mackenzie Mgbako had 13 points on 4-for-10 shooting and a perfect 4-for-4 mark from the free throw line. Malik Reneau was the fourth Hoosier in double figures but only logged 19 minutes due to foul issues. Reneau had 11 points and five rebounds, but committed a team-high four turnovers.

Indiana also got 11 points from its bench and won the second-chance points battle 14-8 thanks to a strong performance on the boards. The Hoosiers grabbed 43 percent of their missed shots.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

All stats in the graphic below are via KenPom.com, are updated through Thursday’s games and are for conference games only.

Maryland is the Big Ten’s best defensive team and second worst offensive team. In conference play, the Terps are shooting 27.5 percent on 3s (14th out of 14 teams) and 46.9 percent on 2s (13th).

Rotation regulars Donta Scott, Jamie Kaiser, Jordan Geronimo and DeShawn Harris-Smith have combined to shoot 54-for-217 (24.8 percent) from distance in Big Ten play.

Maryland’s strength lies on the glass, getting to the foul line and its ability to force turnovers.

The Terps are fourth in the Big Ten in defensive rebounding percentage and third in offensive rebounding percentage. Reese is the third best defensive rebounder in the Big Ten this season.

Maryland is second in the Big Ten in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) at 38.7 percent and is making 74.3 percent of its attempts from the line in conference games.

And Kevin Willard’s team can also pressure the ball and force turnovers. Maryland’s conference foes are turning it over on 17.3 percent of possessions in league play. However, Maryland has struggled to take care of the ball and is turning it over on 18 percent of its own possessions.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Maryland by eight with a 23 percent of a Hoosier victory.

Despite having similar records, Maryland is 48th in KenPom as of Friday morning and Indiana is 101st. The Terps have been far more competitive in many of their losses than Indiana and has some key blowout wins, which has made a significant impact on their overall metrics.

The Hoosiers are just 2-6 in Big Ten road games this season with wins against Michigan and Ohio State. Their six losses have come by an average of 12.3 points.

Having Xavier Johnson available to help with the matchup against Young should be a positive, but IU also needs its sixth-year point guard to do a much better job taking care of the ball. Johnson committed five turnovers in 15 minutes on Tuesday against Wisconsin.

Given Maryland’s stellar defense, offense will likely be a struggle for the Hoosiers on Sunday afternoon. The keys will be taking care of the ball, making some timely 3s and competing on the glass for all 40 minutes.

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