Bracketology: Final NCAA tournament projections

  • 03/12/2023 3:21 pm in

Below are my final bracket projections for the NCAA Tournament. Thanks for following along this season!

Before we get to the bracket, here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-351 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-351 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-351

The Bracket

The projections below are based on all games played through March 12, 2023. Following the bracket, I included my current last four in and first five out.

LOUISVILLE (SOUTH) KANSAS CITY (MIDWEST)
Birmingham – March 16/18 Birmingham – March 16/18
1) Alabama 1) Houston
16) F. Dickinson / Texas So. 16) Texas A&M-CC
8) West Virginia
 8) Michigan St.
9) Maryland 9) Auburn
Orlando – March 16/18 Greensboro – March 17/19
5) Texas A&M
 5) Iowa St.
12) Charleston 12) Oral Roberts
4) Duke 4) Indiana
13) Furman 13) Louisiana
Orlando – March 16/18 Albany – March 17/19
6) Saint Mary’s 6) Kentucky
11) Providence 11) Pittsburgh / Rutgers
3) Baylor 3) Connecticut
14) Princeton 14) Kennesaw St.
Denver – March 17/19 Denver – March 17/19
7) Misouri 7) Northwestern
10) Utah St. 10) USC
2) Arizona 2) Texas
15) Vermont
 15) Colgate
NEW YORK (EAST) LAS VEGAS (WEST)
Columbus – March 17/19 Des Moines – March 16/18
1) Purdue 1) Kansas
16) Howard / SE Missouri St. 16) Northern Kentucky
8) Arkansas 8) Memphis
9) Iowa 9) Penn St.
Greensboro – March 17/19 Albany – March 17/19
5) Virginia 5) San Diego St.
12) VCU 12) Drake
4) Tennessee 4) Xavier
13) Iona 13) Kent St.
Columbus – March 17/19 Sacramento – March 16/18
6) Miami FL 6) TCU
11) Mississippi St.
 11) Arizona St. / NC State
3) Kansas St. 3) Gonzaga
14) Grand Canyon 14) UC Santa Barbara
Des Moines – March 16/18 Sacramento – March 16/18
7) FAU 7) Creighton
10) Illinois 10) Boise St.
2) Marquette 2) UCLA
15) UNC-Asheville 15) Montana St.

Last Four In:

Rutgers

Arizona State

NC State

Pittsburgh

First Five Out:

Nevada

Oklahoma State

Vanderbilt

Clemson

Wisconsin

Conference Breakdown:

Big Ten (9): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue*, Rutgers

SEC (8): Alabama*, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Big 12 (7): Baylor, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., TCU, Texas*, West Virginia

ACC (5): Duke*, Miami (FL), North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Big East (5): Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette*, Providence, Xavier

Pac-12 (4): Arizona*, Arizona State, UCLA, USC

Mountain West (3): Boise State, San Diego State*, Utah State

American (2): Houston, Memphis*

West Coast (2): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s

Atlantic 10: VCU*

America East: Vermont*

Atlantic Sun: Kennesaw State*

Big Sky: Montana State*

Big South: UNC-Asheville*

Big West: UC Santa Barbara*

Colonial: Charleston*

Conference USA: Florida Atlantic*

Horizon: Northern Kentucky*

Ivy: Princeton*

MAAC: Iona*

MAC: Kent State*

MEAC: Howard*

Missouri Valley: Drake*

Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson*

Ohio Valley: SE Missouri State*

Patriot: Colgate*

Southern: Furman*

Southland: Texas A&M-CC*

SWAC: Texas Southern*

Summit: Oral Roberts*

Sun Belt: Louisiana*

WAC: Grand Canyon*

* – Auto-bid

Follow Andy on Twitter (@andybottoms) for more thoughts on college hoops and to receive an update whenever new brackets are posted.

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