That could still be happening right now :/

I read you. Technically, I guess that any team’s chance of winning any game is truly 50 percent, right? The way I look at it is that I think we are a favorite to win today, and we have played quite well against UM over the past couple of seasons too. Of all the top 4 seeds, I like our chances against UM better than any of them. And if we win that game, we will play NU or OSU (most likely). I think we *could* beat either of those teams too.

Then again, it wouldn’t surprise me if we turned the ball over 19 times and shot 30 percent today and lost by 10!

Oh, I assumed that the chance of winning today was 50% in my post, that was my bad. If that was the case, then rounds 2 and 3 would have to be won with 100% certainty, so that Prob(reaching final) = Prob(lose first game).
Let’s assume that in each round IU will have an equal probability of winning. Then let’s call the probability of winning a game p, and the probability of losing a game (1-p).
Now, for the probability of losing the first round to be equal to the probability of reaching the final, you would have (1-p) = p^3.
That results in p = 68.3%. That means, if you assume that the games won’t get any harder in the following rounds, you are saying that the Hoosiers have a 32.7% chance of losing tonight (or any subsequent round). If you think the games will get harder along the way, the Hoosiers would have to be an even bigger favorite tonight.
Just wanted to smart-ass a bit, and at the same time keep the expectations in check. 🙂
And I completely understood that you were merely suggesting that nothing would surprise you. I just took it literally and ran with it.

Simply put if Evan isn’t here those minutes go to Marlin. He may not have been as good as we thought he was, but he’s not Marlin.

That’s not at all what I am saying. I am saying that I think they are just as likely to lose today as they are to win their next three (or four) games. This team can beat anyone…and lose to anyone. Basically, I’m suggesting that nothing would surprise me.

I know what “you’re saying”, but I’d still like to point out that you are also saying “Indiana will win round 2 and 3 with 100% certainty” in your first sentence. And to that I say: “I doubt it.”

Frankly we could get both, one in each half.

yes. luke. with the serious prospect of noah leaving, he was a topic of discussion in our home the other day. it’s extremely disappointing he got away. he likely did miss home but it’s very hard to believe that this alone was reason enough for him to leave. kids his age sign up to serve our country every day. once they leave the nest, you can bet a lot of them miss home, too. there’s college freshman who overcome – the near terror for some – leaving home for the first time. leaving behind friends and loved ones for a considerable amount of time is a natural stage of the maturation process. luke’s family is in the midwest. he’s a big boy – no pun intended – and appeared to be thrilled to be a hoosier. he was humble, a terrific student and showed a lot of class. how did our coaches let a potential 4-year contributor – of his talent – get away? he played his best game of the season, left town for the fall break, returned to bloomington and announced he was leaving. to borrow from our old friend billy shakespeare, there was / is something rotten in the state of indiana.

And either is equally likely to happen!

Good point. I had forgotten that he started the season hurt.

Me too. Objective evidence is harder to find than subjective, but worth a lot more.

true. that did cross my mind.

Minor correction: Crews has actually been to the round of 32 twice. In ’89 with Evansville, and last year with Saint Louis.

I love evidence.

Maybe Stan’s health played a bit into the lack of early minutes. Just sayin

We won but I wouldn’t say that was a good game we played. Expected after an emotional win over Kentucky, but we were horribly flat that day.

IU Manager’s appreciate all the love we can get !!!!

I like your arithmetic. Sorry, I’m back in off the ledge now. I’m just not ready for the season to end that’s all.

I agree with you Notforgj with the exception of the Jim Crews stuff…he has only taken a team to the round of 32 once…Let’s face it the Atkins Diet has more fruit than the RMK coaching tree which we seem to forget includes Mike Davis…even Mike K. beat up on a very weak conference for years to accumulate wins…If your vote is Crews…I’ll go off the grid…Lawrence Frank

Who wants in on my NIT bracket pool?